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☆ Israel-Hamas war risks further deglobalization and inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-15 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Washington, DC CNN —The global economy is facing tremendous uncertainty from the war between Hamas and Israel in the Middle East, on top of the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. They say Israel’s declaration of war against Hamas could be yet another catalyst for deglobalization, though the extent of that is still up in the air. If deglobalization does get exacerbated, what would that mean for inflation and monetary policy, globally? With deglobalization, you get a global economic environment that’s less competitive, and when there’s less competition, that is ultimately inflationary, causing prices to rise. Over the Covid era, China shut down production, disrupting the global supply chain, so deglobalization would bring some production back within US borders.

Persons: Wells, Bell, Brendan McKenna, that’s, Trump, there’s, Hanna Ziady, we’ve, ”, Avi Hasson, Patrick Harker, John Williams, Tom Barkin, Michelle Bowman, Tesla, Christopher Waller, Lisa Cook, Jerome Powell, Austan Goolsbee, Michael Barr, Raphael Bostic, Loretta Mester Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Trump, Hamas, Nation Central, Philadelphia Fed, US Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, National Association of Home Builders, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Procter & Gamble, United Kingdom’s, National Statistics, American Airlines, US Labor Department, Federal, Fed Locations: Washington, Israel, Russia, Ukraine, China, Wells Fargo, Gaza, deglobalization, United States, Mexico, US, Tel Aviv, New York

☆ Home buyers are finally seeing a light at the end of the tunnel, but it is going to be painful for homeowners and sellers
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( Cork Gaines | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

There is no end in sight for high mortgage rates, and sellers are dropping prices. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe housing market is in an ugly place right now for buyers and while things may be stabilizing, that just means pressure will likely shift from buyers to sellers. Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman made headlines in recent weeks with several interviews where he said the housing market had hit "rock bottom." "The housing market is just taking a beating because affordability is at a four-decade low. While the market might not get worse for buyers, sellers are not yet at rock bottom after enjoying years of rising home values.

Persons: —, Glenn Kelman, Kelman, ZIlloq, Paul Bradbury, Zillow, Jeff Tucker, Redfin, Jeremy Grantham, Grantham, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Luis M, Alvarez, Tom Barkin, Alou Diarra, Getty Organizations: Service, CNBC, Getty, Cleveland Fed, Altos Research, Rosenberg Research, North, AP, Richmond, Fed Locations: North American

☆ Here's how one top Fed official is thinking about the increasingly unaffordable US housing market
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Tom Barkin, president of the Richmond Fed, recently commented on housing on the "Odd Lots" podcast. Home prices have stayed high as the pandemic sparked a "secular change" in the way people think about housing. That could mean sectors other than housing will need to see slowdowns, he suggested. AdvertisementAdvertisementHe added that the housing market ultimately remains imbalanced, and that could mean sectors other than housing will need to see slowdowns. But relative prices move all the time, and if what we've seen is a secular shift toward more demand for housing, that might mean somewhat less lessening of housing prices and somewhat more lessening of other prices."

Persons: Tom Barkin, —, Barkin Organizations: Richmond Fed, Service

☆ Americans support strikes — until they affect their daily lives
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-01 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The public will continue to support them – that is until the strikes begin to affect Americans’ daily lives. CNN reached out to the Justice Department for comment but has not received a response. The US Labor Department releases August figures on job openings, quits, hires and layoffs. The US Labor Department reports the number of worker filings for jobless benefits in the week ended September 30. The US Labor Department releases September data on the state of the job market, including payroll gains, wage growth and the unemployment rate.

Persons: –, ” Andrew Flowers, “, Eva Rothenberg, Suisse’s, Jerome Powell, Patrick Harker, Michael Barr, John Williams, Loretta Mester, Raphael Bostic, Michelle Bowman, Levi Strauss, Tom Barkin, Mary Daly Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN —, Gallup, Guild of America, Teamsters, Reno, United Auto Workers, UAW, Toyota, Honda, CNN, Nationwide, UBS, DOJ, US Department of Justice, Credit Suisse, “ UBS, CS, Bloomberg, Justice Department, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, McCormick, US Labor Department, Atlanta Fed, Constellation Brands, Conagra, Co, US Commerce Department, Carnival Corp Locations: Washington, United States, Hollywood, Las Vegas, Germany, Russia

☆ 10-year Treasury yield falls as investors consider interest rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

At 5:47 am ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by over 3 basis points to 4.31%. U.S. Treasury yields were mixed on Tuesday as investors fretted over what could be ahead for interest rates and awaited the latest economic data. Investors weighed the outlook for interest rates as they awaited remarks from Federal Reserve officials and fresh economic data. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman are among those set to speak on Tuesday. Investors are hoping that the comments from policymakers and latest data will provide clues about what to expect from the economy and what this could mean for interest rates.

Persons: Tom Barkin, Austan Goolsbee, Michelle Bowman, Jerome Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Investors, Federal Reserve, Richmond Fed, Chicago Fed Locations: Jackson

☆ 2-year Treasury yield tumbles after June CPI is less than expected
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The 2-year Treasury slid by 16 basis points to 4.736%. The 10-year Treasury yield fell by more than 12 basis points to 3.859%. Treasury yields dropped on Wednesday after the inflation report in June showed an easing in prices. On a monthly basis, the index, which measures a broad swath of prices for goods and services, rose 0.2%. Investors will also be following remarks from Fed speakers, including Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari for fresh hints about the policy outlook on Thursday.

Persons: Dow Jones, Tom Barkin, Neel Kashkari Organizations: Treasury, Dow, Fed, Richmond Fed, Minneapolis Fed

☆ Stock futures are little changed as Wall Street narrows focus on major inflation report: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. stock futures were close to flat Tuesday night as investors looked toward the first potentially pivotal inflation report slated for release this week. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures traded near flat. Investors are eyeing the June consumer price index reading due before the bell Wednesday. June data for the producer price index — another well-watched gauge of inflation — is due Thursday before the bell. Elsewhere, investors will monitor comments from central bank officials including Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester throughout Wednesday for any insights into the state of U.S. economic policy.

Persons: Dow Jones, CME's, Chris Zaccarelli, that's, Stocks, Tom Barkin, Neel Kashkari, Raphael Bostic, Loretta Mester Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Index, Independent, Alliance, Dow, Richmond Fed, Atlanta Fed, Cleveland Fed Locations: Minneapolis, U.S

☆ Wall Street ends down, snaps weekly winning streak on Fed worries
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

With few market-moving catalysts this week aside from Powell's congressional testimony, all three indexes notched weekly losses, ending a weeks-long rally. The Nasdaq snapped its eight-week winning streak, its longest since March 2019, while the S&P 500 (.SPX) broke its five-week rally, its longest since November 2021. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq logged their biggest Friday-to-Friday percentage drops since early March, when the regional banking liquidity crisis hit. "You can probably count on a rate hike next month, but it's that second hike that the markets are skeptical of," Mayfield added. According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 33.48 points, or 0.76%, to end at 4,348.41 points, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) lost 138.09 points, or 1.01%, to 13,492.52.

Persons: Jerome Powell's, Ross Mayfield, Mary Daly, Tom Barkin, Mayfield, Russell, Stephen Culp, Shubham Batra, Shristi, Richard Chang Organizations: YORK, Federal, Nasdaq, Baird, Francisco Fed Bank, Reuters, Atlanta Fed, Financial, Dow Jones, Carmax Inc, Starbucks Corp, Thomson Locations: Louisville , Kentucky, Bengaluru

Appearing before the Senate Banking Committee, Powell reiterated his view that more rate hikes are likely in the months ahead. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said he remains unconvinced that inflation is on a steady path downward, but would not prejudge what the Fed should do at its July 25-26 meeting. Investors will also monitor comments from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Cleveland Fed's President Loretta Mester. ET, Dow e-minis were down 109 points, or 0.32%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 22 points, or 0.5%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 101.75 points, or 0.67%. Reporting by Shubham Batra, Shreyashi Sanyal and Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Arun KoyyurOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Matt Britzman, Hargreaves Lansdown, Tom Barkin, Louis, James Bullard, Raphael Bostic, Loretta Mester, Shubham Batra, Shreyashi Sanyal, Shashwat Chauhan, Arun Koyyur Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Banking, Richmond Fed, Deutsche Bank, Louis Fed, Atlanta Fed, Cleveland, Dow e, 3M, Carmax Inc, Thomson Locations: U.S, Bengaluru

☆ Street looks to extend rally into a holiday-shortened week that is light on data
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-17 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Also on tap are several speaking engagements for Federal Reserve members, including Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday and Thursday in his semiannual monetary policy report to Congress. ET: St. Louis Fed president Jim Bullard speaks 8:30 a.m. ET: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks 12:25 am. ET: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks 10:00 a.m. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell departs after speaking during a news conference following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, at the Federal Reserve in Washington, DC, on June 14, 2023.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Louis, Jim Bullard, John Williams, Austan Goolsbee, Loretta Mester, Tom Barkin, Friday's, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Mandel Ngan Organizations: Federal Reserve, Darden, FedEx, Louis Fed, Housing, NY Fed, Federal, Chicago Fed, Patterson Companies, Winnebago Industries, Algoma Steel, Cleveland Fed, Richmond Fed, Commercial Metals, U.S, Treasury, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, AFP, Getty Locations: United States, Olive, Washington ,

☆ Inflation is going to be more stubborn than people would hope, says Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation is going to be more stubborn than people would hope, says Richmond Fed's Tom BarkinCNBC's Steve Liesman joins 'The Exchange' to discuss Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin's comments about Fed policy in restrictive territory, the reasonings behind his higher rate forecasts, and weakening risk of wage inflation.

Persons: Richmond, Tom Barkin, Steve Liesman, Tom Barkin's Organizations: Richmond

☆ Morning Bid: Not so fast, debt ceiling bulls!
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin BucklandYou didn't think it would be that easy, did you? Investors are on edge after equities and the dollar got knocked back Friday, when Republican negotiators unexpectedly walked out of debt ceiling talks. Discussions now seem to be back on track, with President Joe Biden due to meet House Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy later today. Another potential boost comes from the PBOC's assessment that the fundamentals of China's economic stability and long-term improvement have not changed. Luis de Guindos and Philip Lane are among Lagarde's ECB colleagues on speaking duty today.

With the end of another earnings season in sight, Wall Street's attention has turned to Washington and the debt ceiling deadline. Republican negotiators on Friday walked out of talks on raising the debt limit , abruptly ending a positive week of discussions that appeared to be leading toward a deal. Democrats and the White House have been pushing for a "clean" hike to the debt limit that would push the next deadline past the 2024 presidential election, while Republicans are pressing for spending cuts. Many investors believe this ongoing game of chicken over the debt limit is largely for show, since the U.S. has never defaulted on its debt obligations. U.S. President Joe Biden hosts debt limit talks with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and other congressional leaders in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, U.S., May 9, 2023.

But Fed officials on Monday said the jury is very much out. Bostic said businesses in his southeastern U.S. Fed district "are telling me we think you're close to overdoing it ... Investors have consistently bet that the central bank, due to some combination of recession or a faster-than-expected drop in inflation, will be cutting rates by later this year. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the central bank probably has "more work to do on our end, to try to bring inflation back down." In addition, he says the full impact of Fed rate hikes has yet to be felt.

☆ Premarket stocks: Why current US recession warnings are unlike all the others
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-12 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

A US recession is coming, they say, in the second half of 2023. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned on Thursday of great economic danger lurking just over the horizon. Things weren’t great last year: Inflation hit a 40-year peak, gas prices were elevated, consumer sentiment plunged and markets fell by 20%. “This has been the most predicted potential recession in memory,” said Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin way back in January. Historically, recession typically coincides with that peak, said Barry Gilbert, asset allocation strategist for LPL Financial.

☆ There's still more to do to get core inflation where we'd like it to be, says Richmond Fed president
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere's still more to do to get core inflation where we'd like it to be, says Richmond Fed presidentTom Barkin, Richmond Fed president, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Barkin's reaction to Wednesday's CPI data, what Barkin is watching before the May meeting and more.

☆ ‘It’s not zero.’ Wall Street is pricing in a small but growing risk of a disastrous US default
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

As politicians sleepwalk toward a potential debt ceiling crisis, financial markets have begun pricing in a small — but growing — chance of a disastrous default. “The probability of default has gone up noticeably,” Andy Sparks, head of portfolio management research at MSCI, told CNN in an interview. Yellen has used unusually strong language for a former central banker to warn Congress against messing with the debt ceiling. Asked about MSCI’s estimate of a 2% implied probability of a default, Valliere said that number is low. But this is not a typical debt ceiling debate.”Fallback optionsThere are some early indicators of concern popping up in the bond market.

☆ Fed official: People ‘hate’ inflation. That trumps bank stress and job loss
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

New York CNN —The Federal Reserve faced a particularly vexing decision this week: Should it raise interest rates during a bank crisis? But the economic reports heading into this week’s Fed meeting suggest the economy remains too hot. The Fed ultimately reached a unanimous decision to raise interest rates for the ninth meeting in a row. “The one thing that I hear loud and clear from everybody is that they hate inflation. They find inflation to be unfair,” Barkin said, referring to talking to residents in his Fed district.

☆ Long-awaited Fed digital payment system to launch in July
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The Federal Reserve's digital payments system, which it promises will help speed up the way money moves around the world, will debut in July. FedNow, as it will be known, will create "a leading-edge payments system that is resilient, adaptive, and accessible," said Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, who is the program's executive sponsor. Participants will complete a training and certification process in early April, according to a Fed announcement. Institutions that participate in the program will have seven-day, 24-hour access, as opposed to a system currently in place that closes on weekends. Some Fed officials say the program even could supplant the need for a central bank digital currency.

☆ Stock futures are flat Tuesday night following a selloff fueled by Powell’s comments: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The action comes after a selloff spurred by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's comments indicating interest rates may need to go higher for longer. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures ticked higher by 2 points, or 0.01%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures slipped by 0.04% and 0.05%, respectively. The shakeup in markets came after Fed Chair Powell spoke before the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee. January's job openings and labor turnover data is due, as is the ADP jobs report for February.

☆ Stock futures slip Thursday night as inflation data, Fed officials' comments worry investors: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. stock futures slipped on Thursday night after the major averages suffered declines amid concerns of stubbornly high inflation metrics. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures dipped by 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively. Fed commentary aside, consumers have been a key focal point for investors this week, particularly in light of the latest round of inflation and retail sales data. There are things to be happy about — the labor market is still tight," SoFi's head of investment strategy Liz Young said on CNBC's "Closing Bell: Overtime." Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will be speaking about the labor market on Friday morning.

☆ Gold slips as dollar gains momentum
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Ashitha Shivaprasad | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Gold will bounce around $1,900 level in near term - analystBarrick set to report highest quarterly gold output for 2022Jan 18 (Reuters) - Gold prices inched lower on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar firmed, while expectations of a slowdown in the pace of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes limited the losses. A stronger dollar tends to make gold more expensive for buyers holding other currencies. If the narrative continues to be that inflation is cooling and interest rates will come down, then it will be bullish for gold." FEDWATCHLower interest rates tend to be beneficial for bullion, decreasing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. On the physical front, Canadian miner Barrick Gold Corp (ABX.TO) reported on Tuesday a 13.4% sequential rise in gold production in what could be its highest quarterly output last year.

In that light, the Fed's interest rate hiking cycle is close to an end. That is still well above the Fed's target, but the speed and direction of travel since June's four-decade high of 9.1% is clear. U.S. breakeven inflation rates - the gap between yields on inflation-protected Treasuries and regular notes - reflect this. The two-year breakeven inflation rate this week fell as low as 2.02%, the lowest since December 2020. This will drive down the average inflation rate, whatever the time horizon.

☆ Stocks rise, dollar stumbles after U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 7, 2022. U.S consumer prices fell in December for the first time in more than 2-1/2 years as prices fell for gasoline and other goods, suggesting inflation was on a sustained downward trend. Many market participants are looking for signs of weakness in the labor market as a signal of slowing inflation. On Wall Street, equities were choppy after the data, with the S&P 500 falling as much as 0.8% and then rebounding. Crude prices rose in the wake of the data, getting an additional boost from optimism over China's emergence from its COVID-19 restrictions creating additional demand.

☆ Fed policymakers signal rate-hike slowdown coming, but no easing
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Ann Saphir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"It is encouraging that we got some information today that went in the right direction," St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said at an event organized by the Wisconsin Bankers Association. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration 1 2'STEER MORE DELIBERATELY'Speaking earlier on Thursday to a business group in Pennsylvania, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said he believes quarter-percentage-point rate hikes are indeed now appropriate. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said on Thursday that inflation over the last three months has gone in the "right direction" and allows the Fed to "steer more deliberately" in its battle against price pressures. The Fed ultimately pushed borrowing costs, and the U.S. unemployment rate, into double-digit territory during that period before stopping the upward spiraling of prices. Fed policymakers say they do not expect the unemployment rate, currently 3.5%, to rise much more than a percentage point in the course of the current inflation fight.

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